Ten Lessons for the Post-pandemic World by Fareed Zakaria: Book Review
The Covid pandemic is the ultimate epitome of a butterfly effect.
The event, caused by the transference of a particle from a bat to a human through an intermediary specie — that is still unknown — has brought about a cataclysm of change in our lives and economy ever since its origination.
Fareed Zakaria, who is a famous CNN host, predicted that the US, and the world in general, was faced with a threat that is microscopic, that has the potential to kill millions if necessary steps are not taken to prepare in advance.
One of the biggest threats facing the United States isn’t big at all. Actually, it’s tiny, microscopic, thousands of times smaller than the head of a pin. Deadly pathogens, either man-made or natural, could trigger a global health crisis…
In hindsight, the governments of the world would have been better off had they heeded the advice of experts. Why do we loathe to listen to the experts? That is one of the many questions tackled in Fareed Zakaria’s insightful book, The Ten Lessons for the Post-pandemic World.
Fareed Zakaria draws a brief account of the pandemics throughout history and the consequences they’ve had for the world. Pandemics have advanced history. One of such path-setting events was the bubonic plague, which marked the end of feudalism in Western Europe and planted the seeds of European Enlightenment.
What are the implications of the current pandemic? That remains to be seen as of yet, but we are already witnessing the contours of an emerging world that are marked by the rise of the rest among many other trends.
The Size of the Government is not Important
Good government is about limited power but clear lines of authority.
The quality of governance in pandemic response has sifted good governments from bad. The argument put forward by Fareed Zakaria is that good government should strive to be efficient and not out-sized.
Taking the American government as an example, it is obvious that the state is crippled by its bureaucratic inefficiencies.
The strategies employed by effective governments in their pandemic responses are obvious to anyone. In fact, 3 out of the 4 pandemic strategies, i.e mask-wearing, social distancing, washing hands, have been around since the Spanish flu. The fourth being large-scale testing.
Why then have the governments failed to implement these basic requirements of pandemic response? The answer is inefficient governance.
The book delves into a more in-depth analysis of how the powers of government in America were curtailed from the time of Reagan. And the overtime bipartisan restriction of government powers in the US is responsible for its current debilitated state.
The Great Equalizer. Not Really.
Pandemics are thought to afflict the rich and the poor equally, but this argument ignores the fact that the rich have access to facilities that can significantly insulate them economically and socially from the consequences of pandemics.
The rich nations can easily release low-interest stimulus packages to resuscitate the economy, but the poor nations, under the pressure to close down economic activity to control the spread of the virus, are increasingly under danger to default on loans.
Besides, it has also been reported that the super-rich of the world, I am talking about the Jeff Bezos of the world, have profited immensely from their business during the pandemic, raking in $0.5 trillion in profits over the course of 2020.
The government enables the rich to get richer by supporting their businesses in desperate times, while at the same time cutting on social programs for the poor. Today’s American system has rightly been called, socialism for the rich and capitalism for the poor.
Has the Pandemic Reversed Globalization
Ever since the 2008 market crash, globalization has been scapegoated by populists all around the world. The book argues that the overall levels of trade interconnectedness and growth achieved since WWII through globalization should be taken into account rather than mere dips caused by the 2008 financial crisis and now the pandemic.
Globalization has created a dependency on global supply chains, which are increasingly vulnerable to disruptions that are caused by unforeseen factors, like the pandemic.
To ameliorate this, Fareed Zakaria offers a realistic and pragmatic solution: stockpiling reserves of essentials.
Instead of reshoring, the goal should be to create a kind of strategic reserve akin to the strategic petroleum reserve.
Innovative yet highly practical.
Globalization has suffered but it will bounce back. The rise of digital technologies, AI, foreign investments as China tries to escape its “middle-income trap” will result in more interconnectedness. (More on this in a future article).
The reversing of globalization will only happen if we deliberately try to sabotage it.
Why We Distrust the Experts
There is a growing disdain for the experts, and their advice is usually flouted with impunity nowadays. The experts have lost their credibility. It has more to do with party affiliations, Fareed Zakaria points out.
The probability of someone adhering to pandemic’s standard operating procedures in public is directly linked to whether they support Republicans or Democrats.
Added to the aspersions cast over experts’ credibility, as they are known to vary their judgements in light of new data, the rural-urban divide also plays a role in whether someone is likely to believe the experts. The urbanites and the highly educated, obviously, listen to experts more.
The book highlights that there should be a thorough understanding of the scientific process and how scientists arrive at answers. Jumping the gun in claiming scientists are fickle in their judgements is a gross misunderstanding of the role of data in the scientific process.
Although, scientists are our only hope at combating and eventually finding vaccine for Covid, it is also true that the scientific community has pandered to their financiers and vested interests more than the masses. Embellishing their language so that the common man is not able to understand is a feature that runs common in the literature produced by the expert community.
Scientists, and experts, in general have to be empathetic to the needs of the people.
The Move to a Digital Economy
The Covid Pandemic has accelerated the trend towards a digital economy that is enabled by software and data. Data is the new oil.
AI is already taking up human jobs, work is becoming remote, purchases are increasingly happening online, much to the dismay of brick-and-mortars, all of these are trends that have been accelerated by the disrupting effects of Covid.
But new technology introduces more skilled jobs to replace the jobs it kills. This has happened after every technological leap forward in human history. Skilled labour would be in demand in the fields of AI, quantum computing, biotechnology et cetera.
There are futuristic implications with the advancements in biotechnology that could result in humans breaking-through the barriers of human limitations.
If millions, if not billions, of people are going to lose jobs over the digital revolution then the governments might introduce Universal Basic Income. Not a novel concept, but it has resurfaced with greater strength due to Covid-induced economic downturn and technological advancements.
The Rise of the Rest
We are moving towards a world of bipolarity or even a multipolarity. No matter what global distribution of power might unravel, one thing is for certain: this is the end of American hegemony as we have known it.
Fareed Zakaria provides his take on the struggle between China and the US in the last lesson of his book.
He draws on history to showcase China’s rise and the misplaced American notion at the time that China would become democratic eventually as it entrenches itself into the global economic order.
China has not democratized. In fact, it has become a rival to the US within a system that was the US’ own creation. China’s challenge to the US is unprecedented.
Fareed Zakaria advises that the US should seek to strengthen the international order around China to curb it from spreading its influence outward. Solid advice, but the US and its allies are acting aloof to one another.
In dire need of multilateralism, but at the same time lured by the profitable prospects of Chinese markets and desire to avoid the ire of a rising power, the US’ allies will resist any open action towards China for now.
Conclusion
Ten Lessons for a Post-Pandemic World is a thoroughly researched book that tries to delineate the contours of an emerging world, post-pandemic. We are at a fork in the road in so many ways that 40 to 50 years from now the world we live in would have changed dramatically.
The book is part policymaking advice, part warning, part prescient predictions, and part personal assertions of the author. Fareed Zakaria tells a story of our future that is rooted in our past.
The pandemic upended our lives and economy because we are fostering and enabling environments that viruses thrive on. The ten lessons are guidelines for course correction. We should listen to experts.
